Flash Poised to Fail
February 21, 2012
I have given many speeches on how Flash Drives and the Future is going to be a failure. Here is some research done by Laura M. Grupp†, John D. Davis‡, Steven Swanson†
†Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, San Diego ‡Microsoft Research, Mountain View
The technology trends we have described put SSDs in an unusual position for a cutting-edge technology: SSDs will continue to improve by some metrics (notably den- sity and cost per bit), but everything else about them is poised to get worse. This makes the future of SSDs cloudy: While the growing capacity of SSDs and high IOP rates will make them attractive in many applications, the reduction in performance that is necessary to increase capacity while keeping costs in check may make it dif- ficult for SSDs to scale as a viable technology for some applications.